Can Europe provide a credible answer on Ukraine?

“It is definitely one way to focus our minds – and the conservative! Donald Trump helps us well, if We choose to think about it this way. We may also look at the bright side. Otherwise, these times are very dark. “

Diplomatic words from a major European country, spoke after Donald Trump stopped the tap of military aid to Ukraine on Monday. He asked not to be called, so that he can share his ideas more freely.

The lack of change, and the speed of change in Washington can be amazing. Not only for consumers from news, but politicians as well.

Europe is scrambling to respond effectively.

There was a group of diplomatic activity: bilateral phone calls, late from the leader, the European Rally in London and Paris, the meetings of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. It is also scheduled to be the Emergency Security Summit for European Union leaders on Thursday.

It is a great moment in European history.

Most European countries believe that the security of all Europe, not only the sovereignty of Ukraine, is at stake-as Russia is looking to dismantle the balance of Western power, in place since the end of the Cold War.

Washington, who has appeared in Europe in terms of security and defense since World War II, appears to be “not interested in the fate of Europe,” according to the man who is preparing to be the next leader of the largest economy of the continent, Friedrich Mirz from Germany.

But what are all the large European meetings that you already achieve?

Just a few hours ago Washington stops military aid to KyivUK Prime Minister Sir Kerr Starmer, who is in Europe on Ukraine, He announced that the time has come for “work, not words”. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Layen said that Europe should turn Ukraine into “steel text”, with urgent connections and additional weapons.

Can the continent really behave as one, though? Europe is the total of different countries that have different budgets, politics and diverse local priorities.

Europe’s goal in taking this defensive defense is also two parts:

First, to show Donald Trump that – in the words of UK Prime Minister – Europe will now “raise heavy” to defend itself. Europe hopes to persuade Trump to restart his military support for Ukraine, and to keep the current US security backpacks to Europe as a whole, if he believes they are no longer “independent” off the United States.

But also, European leaders will need to strengthen their defenses and support anyway, if Donald Trump has moved away from Ukraine, and below Europe on a broader scale.

Not only is Washington that Europe feels that it has a point to prove it.

Russia is also watching.

It must now produce many prominent European emergency meetings with a large and large lifting that has quick and impressive results, otherwise in the eyes of the Kremlin, Europe looks weak and weak.

Moscow has already caused the “divisions” that it sees in Western unity.

Donald Trump says he trusts Vladimir Putin, but he was outperforming NATO allies and called Ukraine president dictator.

Russia knows that, although Europe talks about its defense firmly, any security expert talking about it admits that-at least in a short to average term-Europe still needs the United States.

For this reason last week in Washington, we saw the French president and the Prime Minister in the United Kingdom separately, Wooing Donald Trump.

The United States has filled the fixed gaps in the European defense, which it left years of chronic investment after the end of the Cold War.

The number of forces in Europe shrinks with the end of the recruitment in most European countries. In the United States, there are approximately 100,000 nuclear weapons in different parts of Europe under NATO’s nuclear participation policy. Many of them in non -nuclear nuclear European Germany, which are afraid to be severely exposed to Russia if Donald Trump is withdrawing support.

If the United Kingdom and France are able to collect what they call a “alliance for the prepared” – European countries that accept sending a modest number of peacekeepers to Ukraine as soon as a ceasefire agreement – European armies can extend and expose gaps in NATO defenses.

This is why Poland is unwilling to commit forces to this “coalition”. She says she needs to keep soldiers at home, to defend herself against Russia. It also hopes that the United States will not remove its forces from Eastern Europe.

But Europe also depends on the United States on the military capabilities that guarantee the smooth operation of operations. This is known as “enabling factors”.

Ukraine is very inclined to American intelligence, for example, to maintain a strong hand against Russia.

European or “reassurance” peacekeeping force in Ukraine will need our support to create an air shield on Ukraine. Europe lacks the capabilities of air refueling, as well as ammunition that can take air defenses in Russia if necessary.

These empowerment factors cannot be purchased “in a hurry in local criticism and pregnancy,” as a European politician told me.

This is why the United Kingdom, France and others in Europe are very keen to keep the United States on board as long as possible.

One of the diplomats frustrated by a high -ranking country told me: “Some respected European colleagues should hinder tweeting in anger.”

We were discussing European anger at the treatment of the President of Ukraine By the American President and Vice President at the Oval Office on Friday.

“The real driving is not related to the removal of steam online. It is about finding the correct words to move forward, whatever the complex situation.

“Do we need the United States’ continuous support in Ukraine and Europe? Do we have more common denominators with the United States than China? Those are the basic questions that we need to take into account.”

Another basic question for Europe, of course, is the amount of money needed and how quickly the defense strengthens the defense with credibility.

In Ukraine, it can be said that Europe can easily replace the current support of the United States, if it puts its mind.

Germany is the largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the United States. If other European powers follow their progress, she says, Ukrainian defense will be covered in the foreseeable future.

Berlin and other northern European countries express their dissatisfaction against France, for example, which they say, he talks greatly about the defense of Ukraine – a strong leadership and strategy – but it actually donated a relatively little bit.

As for the broader defense spending, the Chairman of the European Union Committee, Ursula von der Lin, announced on Tuesday that “Europe is in the era of re -armament.”

I suggested that the European Union alone can mobilize a total of 800 mm for defensive spending by:

1. Using its common budget more creative
2. Providing 150 billion euros in loans to benefit from the defense of the European Union as a whole-so, for example, in air and missile defense, anti-baron systems, and military mobility
3. Suspended the financial rules

European Union leaders will discuss their proposals and others at a summit on Thursday – including whether frozen Russian assets in Europe can be used to finance Ukraine.

But the possible and highly public European divisions are looming on the horizon. Many local policy of member states.

Hungary, near Russia and the administration of Donald Trump, occurred in the wheel of every discussion in the entire European Union to help Ukraine. Brussels is afraid that Slovakia will go in the same way.

The countries near Russia’s borders do not need to clarify the voters why defensive spending should be high. The small and exposed Baltic countries in Estonia and Lithuania are already spending more than 3 % of GDP on defense. They want to raise this to 5 % in the near future.

Meanwhile, the major European economies in Italy and Spain, geographically from Russia, fail to spend the minimum requirements of NATO of 2 % of GDP of defense.

In Germany, France and the United Kingdom, according to a study conducted by the Focaldata Group for Research in London, most voters want to maintain or reduce defense spending, and prefer their government to focus on the priorities of other voters.

But NATO Secretary -General Mark Retty warns Europeans against waking up and the smell of coffee fermentation in Washington and Moscow.

He says that European countries need to spend more than 3 % of GDP now to effectively cancel the continent for its deep dependence on the United States.

If Donald Trump is completely withdraws from Europe, Ukraine does not care, this means spending 4-6 % of GDP, according to defense experts: European political, social and economists hope not to face them.