China is a manufacturing powerhouse- can tariffs change that?

US President Donald Trump struck China with a second tariff in several months, which means imports from there Now you face a tax of at least 20 %.

This is the last salvo against Beijing, which already faces a very slope tariff, from 100 % on Chinese electric cars to 15 % on clothes and shoes.

Trump’s tariff in the heart of Juggernaut in China – a network of factories, assembly lines, and supply chains that make and charge everything, from fast fashion and play to solar panels and electric cars.

China’s trade surplus with the world increased to a value of one million dollars (788 billion pounds) in 2024, against the backdrop of strong exports (3.5 grooves), whose bill of import exceeded (2.5 references).

China has always been the world’s factory – it has flourished due to cheap investment in employment and state in infrastructure since it opened its economy to global business in the late 1970s.

So how bad Trump’s trade war will harm China’s success in manufacturing?

Customs duties are taxes imposed on goods imported from other countries.

Most customs duties are set as a percentage of the value of the goods, which is generally imported that pays them.

Therefore, a 10 % tariff means a $ 4 -dollar product from China, which will face additional fees of $ 0.40 applied to it.

Increasing the price of imported goods aims to encourage consumers to buy cheaper local products instead, thus helping to enhance their economy growth.

Trump sees them as a way to develop the American economy, protect jobs and increase tax revenues. But economic studies of the impact of the definitions imposed by Trump during his first term in his post, indicate measures finally Raise prices for consumers.

Trump said his latest tariff aims to pressure China to do more to stop the influx of opiates to the United States.

It also imposed a 25 % tariff on the neighbors of Mexico and Canada, saying that its leaders did not do enough to eliminate the illegal drug trade across the border.

Yes, analysts say.

BBC, Harry Murphy Cruz, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, told BBC that exports were a “savings grace” of the Chinese economy, and if taxes remain, exports to the United States can decrease by a quarter to third.

The tremendous value of China’s exports – which represents five profits – means that the customs tariffs by 20 % can weaken demand from abroad and shrink surplus trade.

“The customs tariffs will hurt China,” Alicia Garcia Herro, Senior Economist in the Asia Pacific region in Natxis, Hong Kong, told the BBC. “They really need more effort. They need to do what Xi Jinping has already said – reinforces local demand.”

This is a long task in the economy where The real estate market is declining and Young people are disappointed to find high -wage jobs.

The Chinese people did not spend enough to recharge the economy – and Beijing only A large group of stimulus announced To enhance consumption.

Analysts say that while the customs tariff can slow Chinese manufacturing, it cannot stop or replace it easily.

“China is not only the great source, but sometimes the only source like solar panels. If you want solar panels, you can just go to China,” said Ms. Garcia Herro.

China had started a axis of making clothes and shoes to advanced technology such as robots and artificial intelligence (AI) long before Trump would become president. This gave China the “early engine” feature, not to mention the volume of production in the second largest economy in the world.

Chinese factories can produce high -end technology in large quantities at a low cost.

“It is really difficult to find an alternative … It is very difficult to topple China’s position as a pioneer on the market.”

China has She responded with counter -tariffs From 10 to 15 % on American agricultural commodities, coal, liquefied natural gas, small trucks, and some sports cars.

American companies in aviation, defense and technology have targeted export restrictions and declared an achievement to combat pregnancy against Google.

China has also spent years adapting to the customs tariff from Trump’s first state. Some Chinese manufacturers have transported factories outside the country, for example. The supply chains become more dependent on Vietnam and Mexico by exporting from there to overcome definitions.

However, Trump’s recent tariff for Mexico will not hurt China too much because Vietnam is greater than Burz for Chinese goods, Mrs. Garcia Herro said.

“Vietnam is the key here. If the definitions are imposed on Vietnam, I think it will be very difficult,” she said.

Analysts say what matters to China more than customs tariffs, is the United States’ restrictions on advanced chips.

These restrictions were a major attached point between the two countries, but it also fueled China’s design in investing in local technology independent of the West.

That is why Dibsic was shocked by Chinese artificial intelligence Silicon Valley and Washington is not disturbing when Chatbot released its Chatgpt from Openai. According to what was reported, the company had stored NVIDIA chips before the United States started cutting China’s arrival to the most advanced.

Although this may “affect China’s competitiveness, I don’t think this will affect the situation of China as a manufacturing power,” said Mr. Ding from Standard Chartard.

On the other hand, any gracious Chinese gains in the manufacture of advanced technology will enhance its highly valuable exports.

This happened due to state support, the unparalleled supply chain and cheap labor, analysts say.

“A mixture of globalization, as well as pro -business policies in China and the potential of the market, helped attract the initial wave of foreign investors,” BBC told the BBC.

Then the government doubled, and invested heavily in building a sprawling network of roads and ports to bring raw materials and take Chinese goods to the world. What also helped is the stable exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar.

Analysts say that in recent years towards advanced technology has been confirmed that it will remain relevant and before its competitors.

China has already has a lot of economic influence from being a manufacturing power. But there is also a political opportunity as Trump’s tariff for America’s relationship with the world.

Mr. Cruz of Moodyz said: “The door is a rent for China to put itself as a preacher of free trade and a stable global power.”

But this is not easy, given that Beijing has been accused of calming international trade standards, such as Irrigation of a tariff for more than 200 % On the imports of Australian wine in 2020.

Analysts say China should also look beyond the United States, which is still the supreme destination of its exports. China is the third largest American export market, after Canada and Mexico.

Chinese trade with Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America were growing, but it is difficult to imagine that the world’s largest economists can stop relying on each other.